Delhi Elections 2025: Will Congress Split The Opposition Vote And Help BJP? Photo: Yawar Nazir/Getty Images) Delhi Elections 2025: Will Congress Split The Opposition Vote And Help BJP? Photo: Yawar Nazir/Getty Images) Congress candidate Alka Lamba, who is taking on Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s nominee and Chief Minister Atishi from Kalkaji constituency in the upcoming assembly elections, has accused Arvind Kejriwal of being more connected to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) headquarters than to the people of Delhi. She said Kejriwal should stop visiting the Prime Minister's Office (PMO)mega swerte, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and RSS offices.
"He cannot even sleep at night because the BJP has instilled fear in him. We are challenging both the AAP and the BJP because both are responsible for the destruction of Delhi," she lashed out.
Her statement came after AAP's remarks in response to Congress' full list of candidates that "it looks as if it was finalised at the BJP office".
While the AAP and Kejriwal may dismiss the Congress as a minimal threat, historical voting trends suggest that even a limited resurgence of the grand old party could affect AAP’s prospects. An analysis of the electoral data over the past three elections reveals a consistent shift in voters' support could pose a challenge for the incumbent.
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AAP's rise in 2013 coincided with the decline of the Congress party, with the latter's vote share plummeting from more than 40% in 2008 to just 24.5% — a loss of over 15%. The BJP’s vote share saw a small dip, while AAP won 28 seats. It signals its appeal to a significant portion of Congress's traditional base.
As the Congress's share nosedived further, declining by 15%, in the 2015 elections, AAP experienced an increase of 15% in its vote share. This explains a shift in support from the Congress to the AAP. However, the Congress vote share shrank to 4.26% in 2020, and AAP’s base remained largely intact. The BJP gained ground and increased its vote share by over 6%.
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What’s most disturbing for the AAP is not just Congress’s continuing decline, but the way its loss of support has facilitated the BJP’s rise. While the Kejriwal-led party was dominant in terms of seats, the BJP has gradually been strengthening its position at Congress's expense.
So, the AAP might feel confident heading into the elections, it should not completely dismiss the Congress as a non-factor. The Congress's attempts to regain lost ground could potentially split the Opposition vote, indirectly benefiting the BJP and making AAP's position more precarious than it appears.
AAP and Congress had joined hands for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, but the two parties have since parted ways, making the upcoming February 5 assembly elections a three-way battle. Former allies have now become fierce rivals as both are engaging in bitter disputes that have brought satisfaction to the BJP. While the Delhi Congress leaders have launched a full-scale attack on Kejriwal, the AAP leader has accused the Congress of "secret coordination" with the BJP.
Kejriwal insists that the Delhi Assembly election is essentially a contest between the AAP and the BJP. He is downplaying any significant threat from the Congress.
However, despite reeling from its crushing defeats in Maharashtra and Haryana polls last year, the Congress is determined to make an impact in the Delhi elections. The party has already declared 50 candidates, including Sandeep Dikshit, the son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, who will challenge Kejriwal in the New Delhi constituency.
After remaining largely inactive, the national leadership of the Congress is now planning to take a more active role. There are reports that Rahul Gandhi will hold his first rally in the city next week.
The party has promised new welfare schemes such as Jeevan Raksha Yojna and the Pyari Didi Yojna — aimed at attracting voters.mega swerte